Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best

By Dan Gardner, Daniel Gardner
"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."
-Steven Pinker, author of "How the Mind Works"

We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.

Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.



    REVIEW QUOTES
"It's rare for a book on public affairs to say something genuinely new, but Future Babble is genuinely arresting, and should be required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them. Mark my words: if Future Babble is widely read, then within 3.7 years the number of overconfident predictions by self-anointed experts talking through their hats will decline by 46.2%, and the world will become no less than 32.1% wiser." - Steven Pinker, Harvard College Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, and author of How the Mind Works and The Stuff of Thought "Well-researched, well-reasoned, and engagingly written. I'm not making any predictions, but we can only hope that this brilliant book will shock the human race, and particularly the chattering expert class, into a condition of humility about proclamations about the future." - John Mueller, author of Overblown and Political Scientist, Ohio State University "As Yogi Berra observed, n
"Hugely enjoyable."---James Harkin, "Financial Times"



    SHARE THIS
Embedicon
 
9780452297579
eBook

  Choose a format

Price: $13.60/ea
LIST PRICE: $17.00

Bulk Paperback Non-returnable Discounts
Quantity Price Discount
1 - 24 $13.60 20%
25 - 99 $10.54 38%
100 - 249 $10.20 40%
250 - 499 $9.86 42%
500 - 999 $9.69 43%
ISBN: 9780452297579

About the Paperback

Publisher Plume Books
Publish date 02/28/2012
Pages 320
ISBN-13 9780452297579
ISBN-10 0452297575
Language English

Need 1000 or more?

Additional discounts may be available for print books. We also offer pricing for RETURNABLE orders. Please call 1-800-236-7323 or email us to request a quote.