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Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die (Revised, Updated)

By Eric Siegel

"Mesmerizing & fascinating..." --The Seattle Post-Intelligencer

"The Freakonomics of big data." --Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com

Award-winning - Used by over 30 universities - Translated into 9 languages

An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating -- surprisingly accessible -- introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a "how to" for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques.

Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die.

Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections.

How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn.

Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate.

In this lucid, captivating introduction -- now in its Revised and Updated edition -- former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction:

  • What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession.
  • Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves.
  • Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights.
  • Five reasons why organizations predict death -- including one health insurance company.
  • How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual.
  • Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism.
  • How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy!
  • How companies ascertain untold, private truths -- how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job.
  • How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison.
  • 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more.

How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more.

A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a consumer of it -- or consumed by it -- get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.


Praise for "Predictive Analytics"

"What Nate Silver did for poker and politics, this does foreverything else. A broad, well-written book easily accessible tonon-nerd readers."--DAVID LEINWEBER, author of "Nerds on Wall Street: Math, Machines and Wired Markets"

"This book is an operating manual for twenty-first-century life.Drawing predictions from big data is at the heart of nearlyeverything, whether it's in science, business, finance, sports, orpolitics. And Eric Siegel is the ideal guide."--STEPHEN BAKER, author of "The Numerati" and"Final Jeopardy: Man vs. Machine and the Quest to KnowEverything"

"Simultaneously entertaining, informative, and nuanced. Siegelgoes behind the hype and makes the science exciting."--RAYID GHANI, Chief Data Scientist, Obama for America2012 Campaign

"This is "Moneyball" for business, government, andhealthcare."--JIM STERNE, founder, eMetrics Summit; chairman, Digital Analytics Association

""Predictive Analytics" is not only a deeply informativedive into a topic that is critical to virtually every sector ofbusiness today, it is also a delight to read."--GEOFFREY MOORE, author of "Crossing theChasm"

"The future is right now--you're living in it. Read thisbook to gain understanding of where we are and where we'reheaded."--ROGER CRAIG, record-breaking analytical"Jeopardy!" champion; CEO, Cotinga



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ISBN: 9781119145677

About the Paperback

Publisher Wiley
Publish date 01/20/2016
Pages 368
ISBN-13 9781119145677
ISBN-10 1119145678
Language English

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